For almost a year now, the "hottest" topic for architects has been the economic crisis. However, the lack of accurate data on how exactly it affected the architectural profession made these conversations piteous and speculative and, strictly speaking, made it impossible to analyze the situation sensibly. And a month ago, in October, the Union of Architects of Russia initiated the first research on this topic. The organization of the first statistical study on the crisis among architects was carried out by the first vice-president of the CAP, Sergey Kiselev.
To begin with, a special questionnaire "about the crisis" was drawn up in the workshop "Sergey Kiselev & Partners", which was addressed to all Russian architectural firms, regardless of scale and specialization. The survey participants were asked to indicate how much the portfolio of concluded contracts has changed as a result of the economic crisis - their number and composition (municipal, state, commercial or private), as well as the average salary for the organization and the size of the staff. Sergey Kiselev suggested to his colleagues to take May 1, 2008 and October 1, 2009 as reference points.
In an effort to cover as large a part of the professional community as possible, two leading SRO architects, GARKHI and GAP, were involved in the distribution of the questionnaire in Moscow, and the Union of Architects took over its distribution to the regions. And although the collection of answers has already been formally completed, they continue to be received, and Sergey Kiselev does not exclude that a little later the results of the survey will be adjusted taking into account the new figures.
A total of 128 design organizations took part in the survey, including 83 from Moscow and 45 from the regions. The results, according to the organizer of the survey, Sergei Kiselev, turned out to be optimistic - much more deplorable figures were expected when it was compiled. In particular, the volume of project services in general, compared to May 2008, fell not by 80 or 90, but as it turned out from the survey, only 57.4 percent - a very significant figure, but not catastrophic. True, as Sergei Kiselev himself says, many companies that are experiencing the crisis most difficult and acutely decided not to fill out the questionnaire, arguing that they are shy about their position and “do not want to spoil the overall picture”.
Of course, comparing the state of affairs in large bureaus and small workshops is in a sense a thankless task. It is clear that their portfolios initially had projects that were very different in volume and footage: lost 20 percent of orders for a large workshop could result in 400-500 thousand unrealized square meters, while 70 percent of losses of a small bureau are, perhaps, no more than 10 thousand " squares ". However, Sergei Kiselev gives a counterargument: each company knows exactly how many orders and meters it has lost, and converting these losses into percentages makes it possible to equalize large and small companies in this review and thus get a general picture that is necessary for the first attempt to understand the results of the “crisis” year more than important.
The survey also reflected changes in the order structure. The municipal order, which was not much before, has decreased by 90 percent. The market for commercial projects has decreased by more than 60%, and this is especially unpleasant, since it was and remains the main one for architects. The private order segment has declined, but not as much as the developer's part - only by 40%. Strictly speaking, after the crisis, private orders turned out to be the only, albeit not very effective, way to compensate for financial losses for architectural firms. Even large architectural bureaus, which previously had no time for individuals due to the abundance of large-scale projects, today increasingly turn to private orders - Sergey Kiselev considers this one of the most important trends of 2009. It is especially evident in Moscow: the volume of private orders from bureaus operating in the capital has grown to 21 percent. “And I think in reality the situation is even better,” says Sergei Kiselev. - The fact is that mainly companies that are part of the GARHI or GAP took part in our survey, and these are still organizations that are just now starting to apply to a private order. But there are a lot of bureaus that have always worked only in the cash market. And I know a lot of architectural families in which children who are engaged in apartments and cottages today began to earn much better than their fathers and mothers working in large workshops."
Against this background, unexpectedly - by 30% - the volume of federal orders increased. However, Sergey Kiselev explains, this is not at all a consequence of state support for architects who suffered from the financial crisis. The fact is that even before the crisis, it was planned to develop urban planning documentation for the entire country, in particular, we are talking about the schemes of territorial planning of cities provided for in the new city code. The money for this urban planning work was pledged before the financial collapse, and it has begun to come in now - hence, albeit a small, but growth in the volume of federal orders.
The number of staff in Russian architectural firms fell on average by 30 percent, and the average salary - by 35 percent, although the latter circumstance is explained not so much by deliberate cuts in salaries as by sharp jumps in the dollar exchange rate, to which salaries were "tied" in many organizations. Designers' revenues, due to a decrease in the volume of orders and the same volatility in the exchange rate, fell more - by 55 percent compared to May 2008. “And here it is very important how strong positions in the market the company initially occupied,” says Sergey Kiselev. - It is no secret that many bureaus have accumulated so-called financial “safety cushions” in their “well-fed” years, and now they can afford not to cut employees' salaries too much, but to reorient them to classes that they didn’t reach before - conceptual development, participation in competitions, the formation of a library, etc. Those who always could hardly make ends meet were subjected to the most difficult trials during the crisis, because they have nothing to “extinguish” the blows of the economy”.
According to Sergei Kiselev, there are three most important aspects of the impact of the economic crisis on the industry. These are the already mentioned changes in the design volumes and the order structure, as well as changes in the cost of the architect's services. The last point, however, due to the traditional dislike of designers to disclose the amount of their fees, was not included in the questionnaire. “However, from informal conversations and my own experience, I know that the cost of an architect's services on the market has dropped by about 30 percent,” explains Sergey Kiselev. - In particular, in the SK&P portfolio there are contracts that we did not revise, but there are also those that, taking into account the crisis, were revised very seriously. Some “fell in price” by 10-15 percent, and one - by as much as 32 percent. And, I confess, we deliberately went to meet the customer, because in a crisis, the most important thing is the availability of orders."
In these words of the head of SK&P, one can see a dangerous tendency - they say, now architects will take on any work at any price. And many of the participants in the Plenum of the Union of Architects understood them this way: at the meeting, there were ardent calls “not to lower the bar of professionalism,” to adopt a declaration on prices for the services of architects.“Personally, I think such appeals are very naive,” Sergey Kiselev commented on this in an interview with Archi.ru. - When an architect needs money in order to pay salaries to his subordinates and feed children, he will work for any money - this is a normal law of survival. Another thing is that such a measure can help the professional community to resist the provisions of the notorious Federal Law 94, which prescribes to choose the cheapest companies through tenders. I remember once a customer told me that he loves tomatoes, the tastiest, but the cheapest. I will gladly repeat what I tried to explain to him then: you can make ketchup from the cheapest tomatoes, but such a product will no longer be a full-fledged and healthy vegetable by definition. And an architectural company, ready to work almost at a loss for itself, is the same cheap and not good for anything tomatoes. But I think the crisis will only play into our hands here: only the most professional companies will survive under conditions of natural capitalist selection. And in this sense, the crisis is really cleansing - both within the framework of each individual company that has cut unnecessary employees, and within the industry as a whole."
As for any centralized anti-crisis measures, the plenum decided on this issue that each company makes such decisions independently. This, for example, can be a certain financial assistance to those bureau employees who took out a mortgage loan in good years. And in the case when there is no way to help financially, according to Kiselev, it makes sense not to interfere with the architect's earning "on the side". “The crisis is a phenomenon comparable to the rising and setting of the sun, and it’s pointless to fight against them,” says the head of SK&P. - This is not the first crisis and not the last. The experience of 1998 tells us that we will begin to get out of the crisis smoothly and gradually. When exactly the crisis will end, I cannot know, but I have no doubt that it will happen”.
So, we have before us the first and so far the only not unfounded assessment of the consequences of the economic crisis in the architectural field. The initiative of the Union of Architects is undoubtedly very important and indicative, and the total number of participants - 128, meets the requirements of statistics (as you know, statistics start from one hundred respondents). Moreover, according to rough estimates, more than half of the architectural firms associated with a relatively large order took part in the survey.
However, when studying the results of the survey, an inexperienced viewer who understands little about statistics still raises some doubts. First of all, as already mentioned, the measurement in percent interferes with believing in the accuracy of the information given. Large bureaus, medium-sized, and, possibly, some small firms fell into one "pot". And each was taken as a unit. Therefore, the "optimistic" result of the analysis causes some vague uncertainty.
Now, if all the survey participants were divided into three groups (large, medium, small) and a comparison was made within each group, it is possible that the picture would be significantly improved. Moreover, apparently the Union of Architects has all the data for such a clarification. It would be even more interesting to compare the percentage data with the design volumes in square meters.
The main impression that remains when studying the results of the survey is as follows. The diagram of the order structure shows that if it has changed, then it is very insignificant. As before, developer orders are the most, followed by private orders, and the smallest segment belongs to municipal and federal orders. The last two, although they changed places, still occupy a share so insignificant that it becomes clear that there is no talk of any compensation for the consequences of the crisis from the state. I remember that last winter, when the crisis came into force, many famous architects counted on the help of the municipal and federal orders. So, such help did not happen. One cannot take seriously the 30% increase in federal orders, which in general grew from 4% to 6%, and then at the expense of the money planned for the adoption of the new city code even before the crisis.
So all that we see is a fall in the market for architectural services, and the absence of any hints of any help from the state and city authorities. This means that architects must either wait for an increase in the activity of their main customers - "commercial and private"; or go with the received data to representatives of various authorities.
When using the materials of this article, please refer to: based on materials from CAP and Archi.ru.