Online conversations about what awaits cities in the post-pandemic reality began in March and during the isolation they managed to touch on a variety of scenarios that foreshadow the catastrophic and not very consequences of the virus in relation to the usual arrangement of cities. They predict the end of the fashion for urbanism, a new upsurge of the "sharing" economy, programming privacy in applications and a further increase in building density. With rare exceptions, people believe that new trends will rule the cities we have left in quarantine. Let's analyze the most interesting of them.
Disclaimer: This is not a selection of comments, but an overview of the opinions expressed in different sources. The compilation of this material required the study of a fairly large amount of information, so that, of course, not all ideas, views, and even more so not all statements were included here. Both the selection of the material and its interpretation are the result of the author's decision and the author's view of the amount of discussions that took place. All quotes are in quotation marks, links lead to sources.
Scenario 1. Cities without urbanists
The Chinese version of the fight against the pandemic showed the world that the emergency management methods of 50 years ago are more effective than the Italian "democracy", which sought to preserve the usual urban ways.
“The coronavirus has led the world to love more authoritarian states from China to Singapore. This is a very serious political consequence that will come back to haunt,”authoritative experts interviewed by rezonans.kz tell us.
Probably the most inconsolable scenario would be a rollback into the half-century past, when industrial cities developed in the constant threat of nuclear war and were strictly zoned by function, and the functions themselves were isolated to simplify control during sudden mobilization. Factory-store-home-school - the daily routes of citizens are well understood and, just in case, are fenced off. Such, in the opinion of Grigory Revzin, the sentiments are prevailing today, which, of course, mean not a return to the Cold War, but a significant loss of interest in various kinds of "urban concepts", the flip side of which turned out to be the vulnerability of the "city of universal exchange."
“The infrastructure of the post-industrial economy developed in a society“without threats,”the very concept of a friendly city is the opposite of this. The idea of casual contacts as the basis for the creativity of societies, the idea of a creative city, when people accidentally meet in a cafe and exchange ideas - this is no longer necessary, because they are not exchanging ideas there, but a virus. The idea of a creative city is being corroded by dust."
In an article epitaph to Russian urbanism, Grigory Revzin writes about it as a synonym for a peculiar phenomenon of “improvement” and at the same time a synonym for theft, and predicts an inevitable regression to the dying industrial cities if we continue to plant a comfortable environment “for delight” in them, while trampling the shoots of the post-industrial economy.
Scenario 2. "Ecological techno-communism"
The predicted decline of Russian urbanism is unlikely to stop the deep processes of transformation of the urban economy. Sharing will remain, but not because it is fashionable or because urbanists want it, says political analyst Ekaterina Shulman.
“It looks like the very flowers that urbanists lovingly cultivated were trampled under the iron heel of the pandemic: the most fashionable, relevant and dear to the urban heart suffered. First of all, everything related to collective action and collective living is under attack: from walking in parks to replacing private transport with public one. Between them is the entire industry of urban recreation, entertainment, and a healthy lifestyle. In a broader sense, the whole concept of the sharing economy is bursting - the economy of use, not the economy of ownership. In the current situation, it is beneficial to be the owner of the XX century model. … But I will repeat once again: it is necessary to distinguish the extraordinary from the permanent. … The economy of use is not going anywhere - it is a derivative of modern urban life. I don’t want to say that this is a derivative of modern urban poverty, but we can say that.”
After the crisis, consumers of sharing will continue to be both Muscovites themselves and unemployed people who have come from the regions, who will be able to rent not even an entire apartment, but only a room. The existing inequality will be exposed with even greater force, while in parallel some of its aspects, on the contrary, will be smoothed out - quotes the opinion of the sociologist Peter Ivanov RIA. “After the coronavirus, there will most likely be a confusion (with the decline of commercial spaces) of public and private spaces: there will be public kitchens, public workshops, and so on. This is such a step towards the ecological techno-communism of Jacques Fresco."
“During the forced digital isolation, and this is important - it is digital isolation, people were actively engaged in mutual social stroking, sharing rumors with each other, trying to protect loved ones and themselves from the virus and overcome the joint problems associated with this virus.
… This type of trust will require a new material exchange. This is where the private-public status of things in the sharing economy will flourish. At first, the sharing practices will subside, and then a boom in the sharing economy awaits us, because all these people, whom we took care of and stroked while we were in quarantine, will turn out to be our trusted counterparties in the use of things,”says Pyotr Ivanov.
Scenario 3. City within walking distance
The key indicator of the resilience of cities to the epidemiological challenge was the density of coexistence of people per square kilometer. And this is not new at all, foreign experts remind in the ru.euronews.com review. At the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, the fight against tuberculosis, from which every seventh died, forced to turn urban planning standards from aesthetics to hygiene. The issue of the density of settlement and the tightening of requirements for housing came to the fore. Hygiene was also given a lot of attention in the Soviet SNiPs. A recent study by Habidatum and the Moscow Center for Urban Studies, cited in an article by Vedomosti, showed that the capital's dormitory neighborhoods, in which most of Muscovites were quarantined, turned out to be no less vulnerable to the epidemic than public spaces in the center, forcing people to congregate in “narrow places”, ranging from the elevator of high-rise buildings and ending with the only nearest pharmacy.
"Spalniki" can be almost the same in terms of population density, but at the same time differ in the degree of development of space for living, the newspaper quotes the authors of the study: “For example, in Yasenevo, the green zone occupies more than 40% of the district. But in conditions of self-isolation, walks on it are prohibited, so here is one of the highest indicators of population density in built-up areas. 100 sq. There are 861 people here, and 4600 per pharmacy. The Airport area cannot boast of vast green areas, but there are more landscaped courtyards and, at the same time, a high density of infrastructure. 100 sq. m of a grocery store has 480 people, a pharmacy - 3,100 residents. And then, low buildings prevail here, that is, the risks of disrupting the social distance in the elevator are lower,”Sergei Kapkov, head of the Moscow Urban Center, told Vedomosti.
The disadaptation of the mass residential development of Soviet production stems from the Soviet SNiPs, the chief architect of Moscow Sergei Kuznetsov, who took part in the conference on the M2tv channel, is sure. In the renovation program, everything is different: more meters per person, more services in the first floors, more courtyards and, accordingly, a higher building density.
“When people are resettled and this density is diluted to human density, at least up to the same 20, and preferably up to 25 or at least 30 square meters, which the Ministry of Construction prescribes for us as a target, the effect will be completely different. People feel more comfortable in an apartment. Therefore, I am confident in the correctness of our concept “more space in the apartment and more people on the street”.
Thus, the management of the density of coexistence of people, which experts consider to be the leading headache for urban planners of the future, does not at all mean a decrease in building density. On the contrary, “densification is the most sustainable way of life in a modern metropolis, since it allows more people to access services,” quotes the aforementioned ru.euronews.com edition of the professor at the CEU San Pablo University of Madrid, Carlos F. Lachoz. In this case, the solution to the problem of social distance becomes the concept
15-minute city - crowds can only be avoided by walking or cycling, Richard Sennett, a popular American sociologist, tells us. Trade and work centers are formed close to residential areas, as is the case in Greater Paris. Experts interviewed by Kommersant predict an impetus to the development of district parks, while city parks like the Central Park of Culture and Leisure named after Gorky and Zaryadye will probably "get rid of the frenzied programming of leisure" and will work with passes.
Experts also remind that a 15-minute city in the Russian version does not imply the evolution of the housing itself. Apartments in it will remain, in the opinion of Grigory Revzin, housing of the “existential minimum”: “This is housing of the industrial era, which corresponded to a standard person. He has the same life pattern and his values are also standard. The problem is that the same people have nothing to change, so everything related to the economy of exchange is terribly inhibited. This housing is geared towards basic living conditions and is not open to any changes. The structure of the apartment is such that it cannot be transferred to the next stage. The problem with renovation is that now we have broadcast this Khrushchev standard of an apartment 100 years in advance."
Scenario 4. Autonomous homes
Higher class housing can afford the alternative scenario, but its viability is expensive. It can be called a variant of an "autonomous home" - if it does not yet produce food on its own farm, then at least it has a special delivery system for what is needed to the apartment.
Legendary developer Sergei Polonsky, who took part in the Urban Awards conference, believes that such oasis houses with a special elevator for products to the apartment will very soon become in demand. They will make voluntary isolation acceptable in their "condominium", where there are all conditions for remote work and life, or an office located on the ground floor. In principle, there is no need to invent anything - Moscow City already has this, only a public hub here will clearly be superfluous - an autonomous house works only with passes for its residents.
Here is what Sergey Kapkov thinks about it:
“The real estate market is controlled and formulated not by the Moscow Mayor's Office or the Ministry of Construction, but by the market itself. Maybe there will be apartments even smaller than 32 square meters, because people have no money. By 2023 at the most, we will come to the discussion that each apartment will have a balcony. I would even discuss now that the unique and restored by Sergei Kuznetsov thanks to the violation of the monopoly of the construction market - the Moscow architectural school - may end. And the city will be what it is. Moscow is a city about money, here the market will determine more than power. But there will definitely be a request for a 15-minute city, for landscaped areas, courtyards with a comfortable ratio of parking and the ability to walk. Even when they are closed for quarantine, according to our research, people still feel more relaxed there."
Scenario 4. Autonomous homes
Higher class housing can afford the alternative scenario, but its viability is expensive. It can be called a variant of an "autonomous home" - if it does not yet produce food on its own farm, then at least it has a special delivery system for what is needed to the apartment.
Legendary developer Sergei Polonsky, who took part in the Urban Awards conference, believes that such oasis houses with a special elevator for products to the apartment will very soon become in demand. They will make voluntary isolation acceptable in their "condominium", where there are all conditions for remote work and life, or an office located on the ground floor. In principle, there is no need to invent anything - Moscow City already has this, only a public hub here will clearly be superfluous - an autonomous house works only with passes for its residents.
“We need to create new systems, so-called oases, existing inside a closed circuit, taking into account the fact that all residents have certificates. When Sergei Tchoban and I created the Federation and other projects 15-20 years ago, public spaces, coworking spaces and all the infrastructure were laid everywhere. Entrepreneurs today ask that there be a bank branch and a notary office in the house. That is, these are such autonomous systems where you can live and work. There will also be mini-offices in such houses, if you are limited in the space of the apartment - and people will save money - they will need such a place to work. I would also like to make separate elevators for food, this, of course, will be the hit of the season, especially in high-rise buildings, you practically do not need to keep anything in the refrigerator. By the way, in terms of autonomy, the Federation is just like that, I have many friends who lived there for a month and everything is there."
Scenario 5. Responsive city
Another key indicator of a "healthy city", in addition to the density of population settlement, is the ability of the environment to adapt and adapt to different formats that spontaneously arise in connection with new emergencies, experts say. The cities we live in are inflexible. The director of Habidatum, Aleksey Novikov, says that the city we are used to is tailored to work on a five-day week, eight hours a week. For thirty percent of city dwellers this is no longer the case, but the urban structure is rigid, which in turn leads to "the death of entire spaces in the center, complicates communication in quarantine …". According to Novikov, the required distance can be achieved with discreteness in time. This is a scenario of a kind of time-sharing of the city, in which the use of real estate becomes denser during the day, while simultaneously discharging one square meter.
“The modern business districts of the city are often used exclusively during business hours. And during the most productive time of socialization - from 7 pm to 1 am - many of them die out. As a result, an hourly lease solution was proposed for the use of office space on the ground floors in the evening and at night. In this case, within the framework of land use and development rules, a temporary quota may be established for opening office corporate spaces to the public and small businesses, say, from seven to ten in the evening.… In fact, it’s not so much about reducing the flow of people in public and work spaces, but about reducing the time they spend together”.
The problem of urban management is central, and according to Elena Mandryko, managing director of KB Strelk: “Today, the point is not that you need to build in a different way - you need to use something already built in a different way, transforming processes, not spaces,” leads RIA expert opinion.
To some extent, the city is testing its adaptability right now, responding to the forced shortage of beds and placing hospitals in gyms. “We need to pay attention to this flexibility, which today allows the city to react to one danger, tomorrow it will help to develop effectively, and the day after tomorrow it will allow it to react to another unpredictable danger. It should be seen why architecture before the XX century turned out to be very flexible and adaptable to various changes - today factories are being reconstructed into lofts,”the ancb.ru portal quotes the opinion of Alexander Antonov, an expert of the Public Council of the Ministry of Economic Development.
Scenario 6 - Digital City
A digital city is such a “big brother” that keeps track of where and why we are moving and, if necessary, prevents movement. It has long been known how much data from electronic footprints is used for a variety of purposes - from buying a sofa to modeling smart city technologies. Contact tracing is now being massively tested in connection with the spread of the coronavirus. Already in April, for example, Yandex maps provided a picture of the movement of hundreds of infected people.
In the Chinese scenario, digital services that govern privacy have shown the world an effective disaster management strategy. Following the successful experience of eastern neighbors, the power of digital was also learned by Russian quarantine inmates, who received passes for all two months, quark codes and a schedule for walks and trips.
A new type of capitalism arises on tracking and fixing the personal, reminds the publication of rezonans. Experts interviewed by Kommersant suggest that applications will continue to control various spheres of life. “Perhaps, after the pandemic, we will witness the emergence of special online applications that will allow booking visits to parks,” says Daria Paramonova, CEO of Strelka CA. She is convinced that digital tools for shaping new models for the use of parks and other public spaces will appear in one format or another.”
The growing fear for oneself and loved ones, whom it is not clear from whom to protect, because a new enemy is often invisible, instills in citizens new patterns of behavior, and consent to the destruction of privacy in the name of security becomes uncontested. “McKinsey experts believe that if the epidemic drags on or a second wave comes, it is likely that new behavioral practices will emerge that were unthinkable a few months ago - like registering for a plane only upon presentation of a certificate of absence of infection and / or acquired immunity. In China, McKinsey says, one cannot work in large high-tech enterprises without a certificate. Perhaps the population will treat such new "behavioral protocols" with understanding, since new "lockdowns" will be an alternative to them, - rezonans leads.
Scenario 6. Car oriented city
The scenario of “deurbanization” looks least of all realistic, but let us mention it as well. In a study by Stanford University, it is said, in particular, about a noticeable outflow of the population to the suburbs and the unloading of city centers due to the social distance reflex acquired during isolation. This outflow is also observed in Russia, several million Muscovites who left the capital for the period of quarantine have obeyed the global trend. The use of private cars has increased, which could not but damage the idea of priority for public transport. The popularity of the Soviet triad - apartment-car-dacha has returned, although, according to most experts, it is temporary.
Transport expert, HSE professor Mikhail Blinkin, however, writes on his Facebook that the popularity of suburban real estate lease associated with the pandemic hardly heralds an era of suburbia according to the American version: such a scenario, according to Blinkin, is impossible in any of the Russian cities, in including in the "New Moscow". Even the planned in the Troitsky and Novomoskovsky administrative areas by 2035 the level of road network density of 5.82 km / km2, a record in Russian practice, falls short of the minimum conditions for the implementation of the car oriented development format.
Although experts do not exclude the likelihood that a certain percentage of "summer cottages", having tasted the pleasures of life in their own home, can choose the suburban format in the future, not being afraid of the lack of nearby city services and infrastructure.
Conclusion
The review provides only some of the concepts of the post-pandemic future of cities, in fact, there are many more of them, and none of them claim to be true. In the current situation, when cities for the first time after the shocks of the middle of the 20th century suddenly found themselves in a catastrophic situation, many experts are more likely to follow Socrates' thesis, which was recalled by Strelka's partner Alexei Muratov - “We know that we do not know anything”, and are in no hurry to draw conclusions … The only thing most of them agree on is that the virus will go away, and the cities, despite the fear of them, will remain. There will be no de-urbanization, too many amenities, services and opportunities are concentrated in the city, writes the author of the article on ancb.ru, summarizing the opinions of respected experts. “The city remains a reliable and proven form of settlement for millennia that ensures safety, people-to-people contacts, respect for rights and development. It is the city that can realize an instant response to emerging dangers, as was evident from the example of the construction of an infectious diseases hospital in New Moscow. Cities all over the world provide a higher quality of life, for which in all ages people have been willing to sacrifice even a little comfort."
